Consultant provides numbers, reasons and optimism for shifting enrollment at Batavia City Schools

Housing shortages, homeschooling, COVID-19 and private institutions all play a part in enrollment projections for Batavia City School District, Paul Seversky says. 

An overall decline of nearly 5 percent from 2016 to now isn’t all bad, the SES Study Team consultant said during Thursday’s school board meeting.

“There’s some good news for how that 4.9 percent comes about,” he said. “Grades seven to 12 has had a minor decrease compared to K to six. That’s not good news because they’ll become your seven to 12 kids. Your real good news is your K to one enrollment. Your youngest students increased over the past four years.”

After analyzing school enrollment and grade size, number of births, local demographics, real estate trends and potential growth factors such as new business, Seversky reviewed the ups and downs of future projections. 

Batavia’s district had 75 children being homeschooled in 2020, up nearly 30 students from 2019. He found the silver lining in that with a drop to 52 kids in 2021. 

“What does that say? It says well, COVID was the factor why you had that jump likely in 2020. More households had their children attending school in 2021,” he said. 

A conclusion wasn’t so clear with the increase of students leaving the district for a private school, he said. In 2020 there were 137 departures to private school in grades nine through 12, versus 174 in 2021.

“That’s something you may want to look at,” he said. “You may want to have a communication strategy with current non-public families.”

One out of 10 students, or 10 percent, leave the district within the school year, he said, which is a challenge for teachers and district teams. The district is responsible for every student — those that move into and out of the district — and each one’s education, he said. 

“How can we mitigate that kind of change?” he said. “Those early years are critical for children. You may want to look at why they move during the school year.”

All totaled, the data “tells a bitter tale,” he said. He referred to a New York Times article stating that between 2019 and 2020, there was a “7.5 percent decrease” of births nationally, though Genesee County’s numbers have remained stable, he said. 

“What’s happened in the past six years, you’ve had small, small, but still growth, in live births,” he said. “Taking Genesee County in whole, this is outstanding news. Families are having kids in Batavia.”

What that potentially means is more future students entering the city school district, he said. After talking to real estate agent Lynn Bezon he realized that the local housing market has been steady, leaving few — a total of eight — homes up for sale in Batavia. If “empty nesters” were to downsize, their larger homes could be put on the market for growing families, he said. 

Offering conservative to optimistic predictions, he said it was possible to gain some 20 students in grades kindergarten through one over the next five years. Given the overall decline in the state, “that’s actually pretty good,” he said, despite a small class in each of grades nine through 12 during the next 10 years. 

“My goal is to help you use this as a tool to help your planning,” he said.

The SES Study Team focuses its work on “customized studies that deal with identifying opportunities to provide quality educational programs more effectively and in a cost-effective manner,” according to the company website. Seversky’s contract with Batavia is through June. 
 

Top photo: Paul Seversky of SES Study Team.