economy

As a transplant to Western New York, my impression that WNY is a hotbed of anti-free-trade sentiment.

NAFTA is a dirty word in these parts.

Certainly, trade was a hot button issue in the 26th Congressional race last fall.

Yet, every time I drive past Wal-Mart or Target, or any of the other Big Boxes in Batavia, the parking lots are full.

I wonder how many people realize that Wal-Mart and its ilk are a bigger cause of good paying manufacturing jobs in the USA being shipped overseas than NAFTA?

Black and Decker, for example, started a process of closing factories in the U.S. in 2002 that lead over the next 24 months of 4,000 jobs lost. The tool maker was pressured by Home Depot and Lowes to lower prices and that could only happen by shifting manufacturing overseas. In 1990, Levi owned several factories in the U.S., which produced about 90 percent of the product sold under the brand. In an effort to meet the demands of Wal-Mart and Target for ever lower prices, Levi eventually shuttered all of it's U.S. plants and now out sources all of its manufacturing overseas. Twenty-five thousand people lost their jobs.

If you're anti-immigration, the next time you step into Wal-Mart, consider than some 40,000 jobs have been lost in Latin America since the mid-1990s as clothes making was shifted from those countries to China.

We all love low prices, but those prices come at a price (and Wal-Mart doesn't always have the lowest prices in town -- sometimes, the locally owned retailers meet or beat those prices).

I'm not sure we can reconcile being anti-free trade, and even anti-immigration, and do the majority of our shopping at big box stores.

Buying local keeps more local jobs in the local community and helps grow the local economy.  In current conditions, the big boxes can be unavoidable at times, but they should be a last resort.

Job stimulus is coming to Genesee County in the form of two programs that are designed to either help laid off workers get back work or youths find jobs and learn new careers.

A total of $1.6 million of stimulus money is going to the Job Development Bureau, according to Director Scott Gage.

In one program, out-of-work people can apply either for a job that will involve on-the-job training, and the government will pay 50 percent of their wages, or youths can take part-time jobs in July and August with the agency picking up 100 percent of the tab.

"Our goal is to get the money into the community as quickly as possible," Gage said. "The majority of the money will be spent this year, because obviously, the goal of the stimulus plan is to turn the economy around quickly."

These are not new programs, but the amount of funding for them is substantially more than originally budgeted.

Yesterday, the County's Ways and Means Committee approved an increase in the budget for the youth summer job program so the bureau can hire two additional temporary supervisors.

Youths from 16- to 24-years-old can apply for work through the program and any agency, public or private business, can apply to hire workers from the program.

"There's no commitment for the business to hire the youth after the summer program, but we hope  that if a business likes the youth the employer will pick them up for a permanent job," Gage said. "Obviously, a lot of employers don't have the ability to that immediately."

Youths or employers interested in the program should contact Jay Lazarony at 344-2042, ext. 212.

For the jobs training program, employers must be able to provide documented on-the-job training with specific learning tasks, or out-of-work individuals can apply for job retraining through BOCES or GCC.

Each program is being funded with an additional $600,000 from the stimulus package, with the balance of the stimulus money going to help disadvantaged or underemployed workers.

Yesterday, we asked the Poll Question: What inhibits job growth in WNY?  Obviously, we left out one possible answer: The New York Power Authority.

You may remember reports previously of the NYPA chasing Google away from Medina.

This morning the Buffalo News reports that a start-up steel firm that would have employed 200 people in WNY will not open its factory gates thanks to NYPA.

It was the second time the company had looked to the Empire State to build a plant. After being turned down for its first request for power a few years ago, which also might have been in Orleans County, it decided to build its first plant, now under construction, in Mississippi.

The company now will look for a site outside New York State for a second plant, Chief Commerce Officer Mark Bula told The Buffalo News on Wednesday.

For its part, NYPA claims there are other new businesses looking for the power and there just isn't enough to go around. That may or may not be true, but as the News points out, NYPA has a long history of turning away job-producing companies from WNY.

Buffalo attorney Jim Ostrowski lost the first round in his legal fight against New York State grants and government loans to businesses, but he's pushing forward with his crusade against "corporate welfare."

GCEDC's VP of marketing and communications, Chad Zambito is concerned that efforts such as Ostrolwski's could undermine economic development tools such as empire zones and damage efforts to bring business to Western New York.

"What it really does is it sends ends a message to site selectors nationwide that New York is really unfriendly to business," Zambito said. "It certainly sends a message to business people who might be looking at New York State that we might not be the most stable environment."

Zambito said Ostrowski's effort, if successful, would hurt the state because of New York's excessive tax burden.

Ostrowski doesn't buy it.

"That’s a really bad argument," Ostrowski said.  "If you look at Pennsylvania and Ohio, to reduce our taxes to their level, we would have to cut $40 billion out of the budget. Now corporate welfare only moves around about $1.5 billion per year, so it’s not an effective tool to compete with other states (with lower taxes)."

A lawsuit filed by Ostrowski on behalf of a number of people claims that New York's state Constitution forbids government loans and gifts to private enterprises, and for good reason.

Part of the lawsuit reads:

Prior to 1846, the State of New York provided large loans and grants to private
business allegedly for economic development.

When many of these projects failed, state taxpayers were left with a fiscally
unstable state government and much higher taxes to pay off loan guarantees.

To remedy this problem, the state constitution was amended in 1846 to ban loans
to private firms.

The voters approved the amendment, 221,528 to 92,436.

In 1874, the provision was expanded to include a ban on giving the money of the
state to private firms.

State lawmakers sought to amend the Constitution in 1967, but voters defeated the proposal by more than two million votes.

"In the years that have passed, state officials have acted as though the 1967 amendment had become law," the lawsuit reads.

Ostrowski lost his lawsuit, but the decision is now on appeal.

"There is no scientific or economic study that has ever shown these (economic development) policies to be effective," Ostrowski, adding later, "The main question is what gives these bureaucrats that run these agencies any expertise at all what business projects to pursue. Those decisions should be made by entrepreneurs in the market place."

The ECEDC has a number of promising projects on the board, however, has three major projects on the board, including Genesee Valley Agri-Business Park, Upstate Med & Tech Park and Commercialization Center, and the Science, Technology, Advanced Manufacturing Park in Alabama. There is also the possible revitalization of the Harvester Center area, which could also potentially use some extra government funds.

Zimbito doesn't think the lawsuit is any threat to these ongoing projects, but he does think it runs counter to the stimulus incentives being laid out by the Obama Administration.  The suit, if successful, could prevent New York from getting further stimulus aid, with that money going to other states instead.

"The stimulus money is taxpayer dollars to spur investiment and stimulate the economy," Zambito said. "That’s based on a lot of grants and a lot of low interest loans. So I’m not sure how that’s going to play with all this stimulus money that’s coming through state channels. I think that would put a damper on it, and by the sound of it it would put a halt to stimulus dollars as well."

Naturally, given that this is New York, Ostrowski may not even need to win the appeal to achieve the same effect. According to this Dave Catalfamo column, the governor is doing his best to kill of empire zones by making them uninteresting to migrating businesses.

Manufacturers, which are already in danger of joining New York’s Karner blue butterfly on the endangered species list, are now required to generate $10 in economic activity for every $1 in state tax breaks. And the state is ... demanding non-manufacturers to deliver a 20-to-1 return.

Finally, when thinking about government money going to private enterprise for large scale projects, it's always best to keep the downtown mall in mind.

Amidst a negative employment report, Genesee County is a bright spot, according to a story in the Buffalo News.

While the region saw unemployment reach a 25-year high, Genesee County actually added .09 percent in new jobs, the biggest increase of any rural or metro county in the state.

The rest of WNY continues to struggle.

“Across the board, we have a lot of weakness,” said John Slenker, the labor department’s regional economist in Buffalo.

The job losses were widespread throughout all portions of the local economy, with particularly steep declines at local factories, where more than 5 percent of the region’s manufacturing jobs have disappeared over the last year. But service-providing jobs also took a hit, with the loss of 8,400 of those jobs, from banking to retail and hospitality.

UPDATE: The Daily News, like WBTA, is reporting different numbers than the Buffalo News. The Daily reports that unemployment in Genesee County rose from 9 per cent to 9.5 percent.

OK, Medina is outside of our coverage area, but the Daily News has a story this morning that concerns all of us, because any chance to create 200 good paying jobs in Western New York is an issue that impacts the entire region's economy.

Google wanted to build a server facility Medina, but the New York Power Authority would not help Google get low-cost power to the plant, which is a prerequisite for any of Google's hosting facilities.

The Daily's story fully captures the frustration over the situation.

State Sen. George Maziarz blasted NYPA for denying Google and other companies that have wanted to build in Western New York. Maziarz lambasted NYPA officials Thursday in Albany during a public hearing to raise electric rates by 12 percent.

“I personally worked over two years with a small company headquartered in San Francisco called Google that wanted desperately to locate in Western New York and were told there was no power available to them,” Maziarz said during Thursday’s hearing.

He blamed NYPA “for killing the deals and the jobs that go along with them.”

Maziarz went on to call NYPA officials liars and thieves.

If Niagara power can potentially  be acquired cheaply, as Tom Rivers points out in the story, to spur business growth, how does it possibly make sense for NYPA to thwart business expansion in a region that desperately needs that job growth?

We just received a press release from United Memorial Medical Center stating that 14 employees were laid off in Januray, and previously 16 vacant positions were eliminated, in response to the economic downturn.

For the past three months, United Memorial has been working to take pro-active steps in positioning the organization to effectively cope with the impact of reduced reimbursements from governmental payers and the effects of the declining stock market. To remain financially viable and protect the high level of service provided to our patients, we have applied organizational changes.

United Memorial began implementing several cost saving strategies in January which included limiting expenses unrelated to patient care, restricting the travel and education budgets and re-evaluating projects and capital purchases. All contracts for supplies, utilities and services were re-examined for cost savings. The Cardiac Rehab program was altered to increase class size and allow fewer days of operation. The Process Improvement Department was restructured under Quality Management and the employee shuttle service was outsourced.

As a part of this process, 16 vacant open positions with the equivalent hours of 12 full time employees were eliminated and since January, 14 employees were let go. While the 14 individuals affected by this action account for less than 2% of our 770 person workforce, they were our colleagues, co-workers and friends. Each possessed admirable work ethics and they have collectively provided the Hospital with decades of respected service. Those that were eligible were offered severance packages and where appropriate, options to extend their healthcare coverage.

The eliminated positions include three in management and 27 support staff.

The Surgical Expansion and Affordable Senior Housing Projects will continue as planned. The Hospital leadership team has worked conscientiously to make decisions that will allow United Memorial to continue to grow and provide quality services that meet the healthcare needs of our community.

People often debate the benefit of big box stores moving into "hometown" neighborhoods. Books have been published on the subject of Wal-Mart, in particular, running locally-owned shops out of business and replacing what may have been well-paying jobs with minimum wage, "exploitation" labor.

Whether or not you believe Wal-Mart is a malignant or beneficial force in a community, it is too much of a presence not to alter the overall figure. With a 111,000-square-foot Wal-Mart store expected to be up and running by June, LeRoy will soon learn what it's like to have the retail megalith in town.

From an article in the Democrat & Chronicle this morning:

A spokesman for Wal-Mart said the Genesee County store, which could open in spring 2010, would create 200 new jobs, plus another 100 jobs during construction.

The store will be a smaller version of a Wal-Mart Supercenter, with the same variety of products but smaller quantities.

The standalone building will feature a full retail section, groceries, an optical center, a pharmacy and a garden center, said the spokesman, Philip Serghini.

McCulley said he believes most residents support the project. "There was some dissent against it, but it was a small minority," he said.

"People are looking for options of shopping locally. People don't want to travel too far to do their shopping."

Sen. Charles Schumer, in tandem with newly appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, issued nearly twenty press releases this morning on funding earmarked for upstate New York communities in the upcoming federal omnibus bill. None of that money has yet been tagged for projects in Genesee County, at least not according to the announcements out of Schumer's office. Buffalo and Niagara Falls were both listed as recipients of significant funding.

Buffalo was awarded $950,000 for its Main Street revitilization project. Niagara Falls will receivie $950,000 to ramp up its "international railway station." Tack on funding for university and medical projects, railway infrastructure and tourism, and the funding level for the greater Buffalo region tops $3 million.

From an article in the Buffalo News this morning:

The money for Buffalo and Niagara Falls will be included in an omnibus federal spending bill funding government operations through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. The House is scheduled to vote on the bill today, with Senate consideration set for next week.

Rochester also looks to benefit. The George Eastman House is on the bill for $381,000 "to preserve and allow access to museum library collections through new Web applications."

From the press release:

"This is terrific news for the entire Rochester community," said Schumer.  "The George Eastman House is one of the oldest and most revered photography and film museums worldwide. In these technology-driven times, it’s important for the federal government to do everything in its power to ensure that such historic, cultural gems as this one are able to adapt in ways that allow them to both preserve their heritage and expand their resources.”

“These federal dollars will go a long way to preserve the collections at the George Eastman House while making them accessible through the internet,” said Senator Gillibrand. “These snapshots are an important part of our history. I will continue to work with Senator Schumer to ensure that New York receives its fair share of federal funding.”

A significant portion has been eyed for higher education in the state. St. John Fisher College is on tap for $475,000. Albany's College of Nanoscience and Engineering is marked for $1 million. Binghamton University is in line to receive $2 million.

Batavia City Council members Charlie Mallow and Marianne Clattenburg were in Albany recently meeting with "key officials," according to Mallow, in the hopes of securing fundig for the city. We hope to soon hear what progress they made.

An article in the Buffalo News this morning takes a look at an economic forecast that sees a further worsening of the nation's economy throughout this year with an upswing due to start in 2010 and gain momentum in 2011.

From the article:

The economy is expected to remain feeble this year - even with new efforts by the administration and Congress to provide relief.

Just over the past few weeks, a $787 billion recovery package of increased government spending and tax cuts was signed into law, the president unveiled a $75 billion plan to stem home foreclosures and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said as much as $2 trillion could be plowed into the financial system to jump-start lending.

In terms of lost economic activity in 2009, the biggest hit will come in the first six months, forecasters said.

And...

Even in the best-case scenario, with the recession ending sometime in the second half of this year, employment conditions will be tough.

Some of the forecasters said the nation's unemployment rate could rise as high as 9 percent for all of 2009 and hit 10 percent next year. In 2008, the jobless rate averaged 5.8 percent, the highest since 2003. The survey's median forecast - or middle point - called for the unemployment rate to rise to 8.4 percent this year and 8.8 percent next year.

Companies touching every part of the economy have announced thousands of layoffs already this year and more cuts came last week. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., said it will cut nearly 5,000 jobs, or almost 7 percent of its work force, this year, following the elimination of about 4,000 jobs in the second half of last year. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler, which are asking the government for billions more in aid to remain viable, announced plans to cut 50,000 more jobs, 47,000 of which would be at GM.

What do you think? Will we start to pull out of this at the end of this year? Or will the vicious cycle suck us further down?

The Farm Gate reports that $27 billion of Barack Obama's stimulus package is slated for rural programs.

The package includes $200 million for public safety, libraries and education; Another $500 million will be used to guarantee loans for rural housing; Rural community drinking water systems will receive $1.5 billion; $100 million will be used to spur $2 billion in loans and grants for rural businesses.

Click the link above for more details.

(via the Rural Blog)

Batavians can take some comfort in the fact that the City Council recently whittled down the proposed tax increase of 3.6 percent down to 2.17 percent, without really sacrificing any city services—the jury is still out on whether the ambulance flap will help or hinder us in the long run.

Nevertheless, some rumors are going around that the Council has instituted raises for all of the city department heads. We put the question to Council President Charlie Mallow this morning in an e-mail. He told us that "all city employees have mandated cost of living increases based on union contracts except seven administrative people." Mallow feels that it's unfair for those seven people not to receive the same sort of "increases"—he never used the word "raise"—as the rest of the union-backed employees.

His words:

There is a sense of right and wrong here. I do not believe non-union employees should be punished for not being part of a collective barging unit. Keep in mind that our administrative people have worked hand in hand with council to eliminate close to a $3 million dollar spending deficit in the last two years. The hard work of these administrative people reduced the size of city government. Some people out of sheer ignorance would like to single these people out; I think the rest of the community understands how far we have come and who helped us along the way.

Here are some of the budgeted figures listed under "personnel services"—does not include overtime, social security, supplies, etc.—for a few of the city's top offices (2008 and 2009):

• City Manager's Office: $103,629 (2008), $106,140 (2009)
• Bureau of Finance: $35,639 (2008), $39,040 (2009)
• Bureau of City Assessment: $33,624 (2008), $34,590 (2009)
• Bureau of Inspection: $138,246 (2008); $195,860 (2009)

Strangely, the "Bureau of the Clerk-Treasure" is scheduled for a reduction in its budget for personnel services in 2009. That office was listed at $64,212 in 2008; $60,790 has been listed for 2009.

Since the budget does not break down each city employee's salary into a tidy, comprehensible format, we asked Mallow if the Council had a document illustrating all of the changes that were effected. He replied: "A list of budget changes does not exist; it was a very fluid process." We then asked if the city could provide a list of every employee's salary for 2008 and the proposed salary for 2009. We're waiting on that.

More from Mallow:

The single most important thing behind this budget was planning for the future with a series of contingency funds. These funds will allow the city to save for future equipment purchases. Doing this will allow us to have a stable tax rate in the future and be less prone to large swings like we have seen in the past. People should understand that we have taken on the practices that businesses use every day. We plan, we have goals and we live within our budget.

We were glad to see so many folks getting into the discussion yesterday about the national stimulus package that was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives earlier this week. That bill, already proving quite controversial, will go to the Senate next week for round two.

There were some clear divisions among opinion, yet both sides made strong cases. Some of you expressed a general yet cautious support for the stimulus bill on the grounds that it would "right the ship of state," as Russ Stresing put it so eloquently. Others among you decried the attempt to try to "buy our way out of debt," and called for a reining in of spending.

What is the next step in the conversation when both sides of the argument—because, for now at least, this argument is restricted to only two sides (the classic: for and against)—make valid claims? Neither is wrong. Surely, the nation will have to make "strategic investments" at some point to dress our wounds. It's not unlike a fellow who finds himself unemployed and unable to secure a new job. Perhaps an investment in a new suit, a new haircut or even a credited business course at a local community college could give him that edge. On the other hand, any such investments are based on hypothetical situations: 'If I make this happen, then this could happen...' And funds that could have went toward the perennial costs of food and shelter will have been wasted on a hoped for conclusion that may never come to pass.

Furthermore, accusations that this or that side is playing politics are also all true. One of our readers yesterday commented that the president sought the votes of the House Republicans on the stimulus bill so that said Republicans—none of whom voted in favor of the bill—could not use their unified dissent as a political weapon in the future. Well, doesn't that indict both sides? Democrats are threatening to push through the bill to flex their majority muscle. While Republicans are all too content in playing the foil.

President Barack Obama spoke a lot about "change" during the campaign, but if you ask me, this seems to be a whole lot of politics as usual. In the meantime, while we're trying to figure all that out, Howard passed along this article from a site called Good, that pieces together some of the arguments against a stimulus. Very informative. The author sums up his stance, in this way:

And there you have it. In my mind, economics seems to be a mostly made-up “science,” and I am pretty sure nothing the government does will have as much effect as other events (see: Great Depression and World War II, for instance). That said, doing nothing (or just lowering taxes) does not really seem like a viable move for a government, politically if not also economically. So, if we can get another round of the equivalent of WPA posters and CCC National Park trails out of this, maybe that’s all we need until whatever is really going to cure the recession comes along. But, in the meantime, it’s important to look at all sides.

Many people love those big box, big chain stores. Often, they have a better selection of items then smaller, locally owned stores, not to mention the potential of better prices.

But is going to Wal-Mart, Target or Home Depot first, instead of one of the many local merchants that might carry the same wares the best choice for your community or yourself?

USAToday carried an interesting piece this past week on the virtues of shopping local.

There are good reasons for buying local. It reduces the need for shipping, which reduces pollution, and it supports the local community. "A study we did found that for every $100 spent in a chain store, $14 went back into the local economy. For a locally owned business, it was $45," says Stacy Mitchell, author of "Big-Box Swindle" and researcher with the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. "Locally owned businesses buy a lot of services from other local businesses. So by buying from one local business, you're not only supporting that business, you're supporting other local businesses."

The author offers examples of how she shops local. Of course, not all of those options are available in Batavia.  At times, unfortunately, the big box stores seem unavoidable.  But what are you doing to make a better effort to support your local economy?

(via Rochester Turning)

Last night, as I sat nursing a nearly warm stout and picking at the last bits of a charred creole burger in a local sports pub, a cross-legged CNN reporter flashed her inane smiles and asked her inane questions of former president Bill Clinton on the television suspended on the wall above my head. At one point, the text bar flashed something like: "Economy will recover in three years, says former president," or some such statement. Essentially, Clinton was telling us that everything would be all fixed up by the time (conveniently) we arrive at the next presidential campaign season.

Anyhow, the prediction got me thinking. Or, to be more specific, the pretension to make such a prediction got me thinking. Meteorologists can't accurately give you the weather ten days out. Weather is subject to a little thing called chaos mathematics. Chaos. Ditto, economics. So how does this guy have it all figured out, and how is he fixing the date for us?

Over the past few days, in my perusals of our two area metropolitan newspapers—the Buffalo News and the Democrat & Chronicle—I've noted a surfeit of articles on folks making claims about the character, depth, meaning and longevity of our current recession; in particular, the recession and its affects on the economy of Upstate New York. So what I thought to do was put together a sort of pastiche, culling fragments from six articles that appeared this week in these two publications. Then we can take a look at them, side by side as it were, and see if we can't get a better look at any truths that may be lurking in the shadows.

We'll start with an article we referenced yesterday from the Buffalo News. It's about Robert Wilmers, chief executive officer of M&T Bank Corp., who claims that upstate needs "big projects" to help drive its future growth. Here's what Wilmers has to say about the recession in particular:

Wilmers was asked when he believed the recession will end. “The recession will last for a long time, and I don’t think 2009 will be a good year economically,” he responded.

An article from the Democrat & Chronicle (Tuesday) backs that claim. Not only are we now officially in our 13th month of the recession, but we New Yorkers will likely remain much longer in the grips of the recession.

New York officials and economists are wondering if this downturn will hurt the state for a longer period than the nation feels pain. Data from the state Department of Labor show that the two most recent U.S. recessions, which each lasted eight months, started sooner and lasted later in New York, costing 545,000 jobs between 1989 and 1992 and 330,000 jobs between 2000 and 2003.

Our factory production would also indicate that we're headed for a long hard slide. From a Buffalo News article (today):

“The manufacturing sector is in a recession,” said Mikhail Melnik, a Niagara University economist.

With the nationwide financial crisis causing consumers to tighten their purse strings and companies to hold back on spending, Melnik said he does not expect a quick turnaround by the local economy.

“The situation is expected to worsen over the next several months,” he said.

If you think that's bad. According to another article in the Buffalo News (today), it's only going to get worse.

The U. S. service sector shrank far more than expected in November, as employment, new orders and prices plunged, hurting retailers, hotels and airlines. Meanwhile, Americans hunkered down heading into the holidays, forcing retailers to ring up fewer sales and factories to cut back on production.

The Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched gauge of activity in service industries, where most Americans work, showed that for every company adding jobs, eight cut payrolls last month. That ratio led some economists to boost their forecasts for layoffs for November to levels not seen since the early 1980s.

As for the unemployed, expect to see many more of them over the next year. With the jobless rate expected to hit 6.8 percent by the end of the week, analysts are predicting that we'll see an increase to near 9 percent by this time next year.

But wait a second! We've got another prediction. From this same article:

“I am looking for this recession to last 18 months, ending in June,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Eighteen months! But Bill Clinton said three years. As for "New York officials," they seem to expect this sucker to pick up more steam as we head into the New Year. Plus, we've got Wilmers telling us that we're in it for at least another year or more.

But we're shopping. Or... at least, we were on Friday. An article in the Democrat & Chronicle (today) is literally entitled: Shoppers forgot about recession on Friday. This first line especially is worth a laugh, which may have even been intended:

The economy has officially been in a recession for the past 12 months, but apparently no one told Black Friday about it.

We even spent an average of $25 more per shopper than last year—which, at this time, it ought to be pointed out, was also in recession.

Bargains prompted many to buy more than usual. Spending more during the big sales — some New York retailers offered discounts of up to 60 percent off normal prices — can mean saving money in the long run.

"I'm always the bargain shopper, and this year this is our Christmas present" said Kerry Bryan, 28, of Chili, who bought a $600 television at Best Buy on Friday morning for herself and her fiancé. "If we get it early, it's just a bonus."

A $600 television! Is that really the purchase of a recession-stricken American? And she even calls it a bonus! We're expected to near double digit unemployment rates by the end of next year, and we've got people spending hundreds of dollars on luxury items. Maybe things aren't that bad.

One guy is willing to go out on a limb and say just that. This is from another article that appeared in the Democrat & Chronicle (yesterday).

Charles Plosser, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said growth should resume in the second half of 2009, though overall economic expansion for the year will be tepid, probably falling short of 2 percent.

Plosser forecast that the national unemployment rate, currently 6.5 percent, will rise above 7 percent in 2009.

But the former dean of the Simon school at the University of Rochester said he does expect a turnaround to begin late in the year.

"The housing sector should finally (hit) bottom and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will gradually help financial markets return to some semblance of normalcy," Plosser told the audience at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Rochester.

So, things should start looking rosy again come Christmas time next year. Oh, except for the more than 7 percent of the population who will be out of work.

I don't know, folks. We've got a lot of information here. A lot of different people telling us a lot of different things. Who do we believe? Any of them? Does the guy falling off his barstool on the other end of the bar any less qualified to make predictions than Bill Clinton or Charles Plosser or "New York officials"?

Check back later today Friday for our look at the credit crisis here in Genesee County.

An article in the Buffalo News this morning got me thinking. Briefly, the article is about Robert Wilmers, chief executive officer of M&T Bank Corp. Wilmers spoke to an audience of venture capitalists about revitalizing the upstate economy.

He pointed out that New York City’s economy — until recently — had been doing "a lot better than the economy upstate."

Part of that is due to what he called the "innate attributes" of the city itself, but he also cited the "billions and billions of dollars" spent on projects such as the 42nd Street revival, the South Street Seaport, the Jacob Javits Center and Ground Zero.

By contrast, "in upstate, including Western New York, we have not seen any large projects."

Indeed, Wilmers said he was told by former downstate Empire State Development chairman Patrick Foye that up to 70 percent of the agency’s money was spent upstate, but "I was having trouble finding that."

So this got me thinking. Rochester tried for its home-run project some years back. Who here remembers the fast ferry? Connect Rochester to Toronto. Boost tourism. Bring in the money. Yeah... So, that one tanked. Big.

But what about Batavia... what could we do for Batavia that would give it that shot in the arm, get the kids out walking the streets and the old folks dancing in their homes? Money rolling in, fame, glory. We're not on a body of water, so we don't have to worry about a ferry flop. We've already got the "mall" that people love to hate.

Wilmers:

Finally, the region should combine tourism and its renowned architecture to draw in visitors. “We’ve been less successful than most communities in upstate New York,” he said dryly. “We have not destroyed as many architectural sites as other parts of the country.”

Batavia has plenty of architecture to show off: glorious old homes, towering brick churches, regal crumbling mansions.

So... We had the chance to ask Pat Weissend what he would want for Batavia. Weissend is the director of the Holland Land Office Museum. He says, why not think even bigger. Something huge, something humungous! At a recent meeting of the Kiwanis Club, Weissend heard a presentation by economic developer Chad Zambito about erecting an enormous technological-industrial park in Alabama. This industrial center would create 10,000 jobs and entirely transform the character of the region, says Weissend.

Well, either that, or establish the state of Genesee. "We could be the 51st state," he says. Just make sure there's enough money left over to triple the size of the museum.

More than 260 area employees will soon be without a job. WBTA's Dan Fischer reports that the Seneca Gaming Corp. will be laying off 210 of its workers, all of whom are employed at the casinos in Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Salamanca. Seneca cites the "worsening economy." Also, in Rochester, the Democrat & Chronicle will be eliminating 59 jobs, 34 of which will be paid off this week. That accounts for 8 percent of the total workforce, according to an article from the Associated Press, which has this to say of the newspaper layoffs:

The newspaper has not yet specified how many of the layoffs will occur in the newsroom. After the cuts are made, it will have 680 full-time and part-time employees.

Publisher Ali Zoibi says rising costs and a drop in advertising and circulation revenue have created what he called "this unpleasant situation."

He said the newspaper also is trimming non-payroll expenses.

Tough times, it seems, all over.

Earlier this week, Robert Harding of the Albany Project posted his suggestions on how to tackle the state's budget crisis: Cut taxes, cap spending and tax millionaires. As always, Harding makes a great case for each, whether or not you're willing to go along with him on it or not.

Meanwhile, at the capitol, leading state legislators bickered and taunted and mocked one another at a special session that cost tax payers in excess of $100,000 and saved them nothing. Nor was anything acheived from the meeting. Outside, more than a thousand protestors gathered to decry any cut in revenue for whatever special interest group they happened to represent.

In short, New York proved yet again that it is more than worthy of the epithet: the nation's most dysfunctional legislature.

So I thought, OK, we've heard over and over again, every day this week, more about the dysfunction, and how nothing is getting done, yet this nothing is costing us more than ever. Well, we've got a few new faces that will soon be heading to Albany. One of them is our own Mike Ranzenhofer, representative of the 61st District. All eyes will certainly be upon him. He ran a solid, hard-fought campaign and got elected to represent us. We will now wait for him to deliver.

But isn't that a lot of pressure? Can Ranzenhofer really change things in Albany, home to the hulking, ineffectual organism that is our state Legislature?

Well, I called to ask those very questions. Here's what he had to say.

"One of the things I've always been able to do is... I'm able to work with members on both sides of the aisle," said Ranzenhofer.

He went on to explain that many new members will be heading to the Legislature at the beginning of the year.

"I'm hoping these members will prevail on some of the more established members to stop all the bickering and finger pointing and come to the realization that changes need to be made," he said. "We're in unprecedented times. We need to encourage members of looking at new ways of doing things."

Ranzenhofer had an inciteful response to just how one goes about getting the otherwise recalcitrant members of the Legislature to "look at new ways." He described the situation as being similar to someone who is going through a "personal" problem.

"First, you have to acknowledge that the problem exists, then be able to adopt strategies to deal with it," he said. "A lot of people in Albany are in denial. They don't realize there's a problem. We first need to identify the problem."

One such problem: We just don't have the revenue to support the amount of spending that has been approved.

Ranzenhofer has talked about his plan a lot before: cut spending across the board.

"I don't think this should be dictated by the governor or by the Assembly," he said. "We need to go to the workforce, go to the department heads and ask them about where they think cuts need to be made."

What's more, he said, we need to consider that it is "not acceptable" for anyone to say: 'Hey, it's this other department that's the problem, not mine.'

So, the real question, though, is how would Ranzenhofer—or any state representative, for that matter—make the case to his constituents, to the people of the 61st, that he's doing his absolute best to get things done, even if the atmosphere in Albany doesn't change. Bringing home the pork has been the standard mode of conduct. But shouldn't we start expecting more than just a gift of Christmas lights to smooth over the utter failure of our state representatives to run things with at least a modicum of efficiency? What if establishment rule carries the day, and no matter what you do, the stalemate, the bickering, the political charades—what if all that continues, despite your efforts? How do you let your people know: 'Hey, I'm still doing my best.'

"There are several things you (such a representative, that is) can do to tell them (the constituents) what's going on," he said. "It really involves communication: through venues such as your own or newsletters or telephone calls or town hall meetings. It's important to let people know that you're trying to make the changes. It's important to communicate with the people you represent in your district."

"I think I've done a good job of that in the (Erie County) Legislature, communicating the efforts I put forth trying to make changes. There are no guarantees. But you certainly have to have the energy, the vigor and the attitude that you're not going to give up."

The unemployment rate for Genesee County is up more than a percentage point from this time last year, according to WBTA's Dan Fischer. The October jobless rate for the county was figured at 5.2 percent this year, as compared with 4.1 percent, last year. Those figures are released by the State Department of Labor, one of whose economists said that the last time the figures for the region were this high, the country was coming out of the recession of the early 1990s.

M&T Bank is on tap to receive $600 million from the federal government, in exchange for "preferred stock" that will go to the Treasury Department, as part of the nationwide "rescue plan."

(Update): The Buffalo News today includes a comprehensive article on M&T's option to join the "bailout." Especially interesting are these few lines:

M&T had been hesitant to sign on because executives feel the bank is perfectly healthy, hasn’t cut back on lending in its communities, and doesn’t need the extra capital. The bank currently has $6.4 billion in capital, giving it a “Tier 1” capital ratio of 7.34 percent, which exceeds the highest regulatory minimums.

That’s why the bank requested only the minimum of $600 million, as opposed to the maximum of about $1.73 billion that it could have sought, based on its asset size.

Come again? The bank is doing perfectly fine, doesn't need the money, but figured: 'Hey, what the heck, if they're giving it out, we might as well take some.'